Volatility in energy markets has become our new normal. And while we all—daily, or now almost weekly—speculate about what Trump will do or at least announce next, and how financial markets will react, European governments are effectively competing over who can better cushion the impact on retail markets. Here as well, fuel prices are changing weekly due to crisis conditions, and the government is even considering introducing differentiated pricing for emergency situations. Yet in this day-to-day firefighting and political populist competition, we are missing the bigger picture. We have turned a blind eye to two key, but uncomfortable, facts.

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First, the cost of strategic autonomy. If the EU is serious about pursuing strategic autonomy and decoupling from dependence on geopolitically unstable regions (the Middle East) or even strategic rivals (Russia), this will come at a price—and a high one. Consumers will bear this cost: all of us as individuals, as well as our industry. In the short to medium term, this will significantly hurt our global competitiveness—and certainly not in a positive way. Energy security in a (de)globalized world is simply no longer cheap, nor will it be again.

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Second, the missed opportunity of the green transition. The current crisis—manifesting as enormous inflationary pressure and pushing us toward the brink of stagflation (the dangerous combination of slowing economic growth and high inflation)—is in fact our greatest opportunity. But only if we are serious about the green transition and decarbonization. It is time for a reality check: in a truly “decarbonized and green European Union,” we should be paying more for hydrocarbons than we do today. Instead, politics is sending exactly the opposite signals, and as a society we are doing precisely the opposite. Through various mechanisms, price caps, and regulations, governments are subsidizing and softening the cost of exactly what we urgently need to consume less of—petroleum products.

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The bitter truth, which few dare to say out loud, is mathematically unforgiving: in Slovenia today, we are effectively paying less for petroleum products in real terms than we did five years ago. If in 2021 the baseline price of diesel was €1.40 per liter, then accounting for cumulative inflation, it should cost around €1.75 today to have the same real value. Given that the current price (before April 20) stands at €1.80, we find that over half a decade—despite all the shocks—diesel has, in real terms, increased by only a few cents. We want a green transition, yet at the same time—through public budgets and regulation—we demand cheap fossil fuels.

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This is literally an upside-down world. Until we admit that the transition to a sustainable society requires more expensive hydrocarbons—and that the comforts of the past are gone—we will remain prisoners of recurring geopolitical shocks and tweets from the White House, the Kremlin, or Beijing. It is time to grow up and accept the bill for the future we have chosen.