The list of concrete measures, policies, and decisions that Trump has casually announced, signed, and implemented in recent months—and which more than just conspiratorially support this otherwise absurd theory of his march toward MASA—is absurdly long. So long, in fact, that it can’t possibly be squeezed into a single column. But I’ll try. If I resort to a few literary devices—metaphors, hyperbole, and so on—or simplify certain things, forgive me. After all, we’re dealing with an absurd theory, nothing more.

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We should begin with tariffs, which may yet escalate into full-blown trade wars—hopefully not into the real, hot kind. Just recently, the U.S. administration boasted that due to drastic hikes in import tariffs on a wide range of products from practically the entire world, it collected a record amount of customs duties in September. Sounds great. But almost simultaneously, U.S.-based financial giant Goldman Sachs published a report showing that 88% of the costs of these higher tariffs fell on American importers (51% on businesses and 37% on consumers), and only 12% on foreign exporters. As independent analysts had predicted, Trump effectively taxed his own economy and population. And we know very well how much Americans “love” taxes. And we know even better what Trump promised them—the exact opposite. Will the average American realize this? Not yet—just as a hangover doesn’t hit immediately after the last shot of liquor. It will take a while. But once the effect kicks in, it won’t make America wealthier, but economically weaker and relatively poorer (especially considering inflation, which may again become a problem for ordinary Americans).

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The Pandora’s box of trade wars that Trump has thrown wide open is causing even greater shocks outside the U.S. While Trump, in neo-mercantilist fashion, uses only the bargaining power of the stronger—threatening unilateral measures that bypass international agreements—China’s President Xi steps forward and declares that we must “strive for an equitable and multipolar world and for an economic globalization that benefits all and is inclusive. We must make the global governance system more just and balanced.” A statement that could easily be attributed to a Western statesman. Regardless of what we think of China’s internal party rule, its human rights record, or freedoms behind the Great Wall, the fact is that when the Chinese president says this, an increasingly large part of the world listens. Not just authoritarians, the anti-American axis of evil, or the Global South, but also all those for whom integration into global flows is key to development and prosperity. And aside from outliers like North Korea, that’s 99% of the planet. Suddenly, those who believe only in the limited power of democracy and various freedoms have become the true defenders of free trade and globalization. Roles and cards have been thoroughly reshuffled. And the dealer—the one who reshuffled them—was the American president himself. To his own, and America’s, detriment.

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Thus, exactly as independent analysts had predicted, it turned out that Trump ended up imposing additional taxes on his own economy and population. And we know very well how much Americans “love” taxes.

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Trump has ensured that an ever larger part of the world is pragmatically flirting with China and with development models far removed from liberal democratic ones. It is only a matter of time before voices within the EU grow louder in favor of rebuilding relations with Putin’s Russia based purely on economic pragmatism (which we know all too well where it led us). The American president has proven to be a grand anti-hero—time and again, he manages to build new anti-coalitions. Suddenly sitting at the same table are actors who find the current world order of liberal democracies unsuitable—or actively work to undermine it—but who share almost nothing except this opposition. Among themselves, they often have even deeper divergences and tensions—sometimes even bordering on military conflict. From this perspective, one of Trump’s “great achievements” is undoubtedly that, through punitive tariffs, he managed to seat India’s Prime Minister Modi and China’s President Xi at the same table—at the September meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). With this, he further strengthened the global influence of emerging formats in which neither the U.S. nor other Western countries are present. True, we shouldn’t overestimate the influence of BRICS or the SCO, as these formations (more clubs than alliances) are rather loose, with member states mostly pursuing their own narrow, self-interested goals—but the trend is clear. If Trump’s policies continue, the dynamics of these “coalitions of contradictions” will only intensify.

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And India, America’s biggest ally in Asia, is hardly the only one in such a position. The list of those who see Trump’s America as an increasingly unpredictable partner—economically, politically, and in terms of security—is growing steadily. Japan and South Korea are in the same boat—traditional U.S. allies in a region where China is increasingly dominant. Or Qatar, which recently woke up to an Israeli missile strike in the middle of Doha, where Hamas negotiators were present. The White House spokesperson described the event—which represents an act of state terrorism par excellence—as an “unpleasant incident.” And let’s not forget that Qatar has, in recent years, spent tens of billions of dollars on American air-defense systems meant to protect it from exactly such attacks—and this year alone signed a new defense package worth USD 42 billion. Will Qatar—or any other U.S. ally in the region—act differently in the future? Entirely possible.

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Trump has thus ensured that an ever-growing part of the world will pragmatically flirt with China and with development models that are far removed from liberal-democratic ones. It is only a matter of time, for example, before voices within the EU grow louder in favor of rebuilding relations with Putin’s Russia based purely on economic pragmatism (which we know all too well where it led us).

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But Trump’s isolationism isn’t just about economics or hard power. Through numerous moves, he has already managed—short term (with even more pronounced long-term consequences)—to significantly weaken America’s soft power, measured in categories such as development aid, the attractiveness of American universities, or the ability to attract talent. By abolishing USAID programs, the federal government will save a mere 0.5% of the annual budget, but the indirect damage will be far greater. The vacuum that emerges will sooner or later be filled by other powers—primarily China—which will gradually strengthen their image and soft power.

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A similar story applies to American universities, which Trump has attacked for ideological reasons—with accusations of wokeness, communism, being nests of Antifa, and similar sins. In doing so, he has harmed not only prestigious institutions but indirectly the entire United States. The numbers already show a strong rise in interest among American students in enrolling at British universities, with a similar trend expected among international students. U.S. soft power, built over decades after World War II and grounded not only in Hollywood but also in top-tier science, freedom of thought, and the ability to attract talent, will gradually decline.

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The shine and relative power of the U.S. will, of course, not evaporate overnight— inertia is a powerful force, especially when it comes to such a large system. But the damage will accumulate. At the end of Trump’s term, America will not be (even) greater, but “smaller.” Meanwhile, anti-American forces around the world will be stronger—not only through their own efforts but also thanks to Trump. According to a Kremlin-style script that—if it exists—Trump is implementing with astonishing consistency.

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The column was originally published in the newspaper Večer.