Author
dr. Denis Mancevič
We live in a time when international law is becoming little more than a dead letter. Russian ideologues such as Dugin and Karaganov openly argue that, in the new world order, truly sovereign states are no longer those recognized as such under international law or the UN Charter. The new reality is simple and chilling: truly sovereign states are only those that possess nuclear weapons and — crucially — demonstrate the resolve to use them preventively. According to Russian logic, failing to use force at a critical moment is a sign of weakness and a loss of sovereignty. If you want to sit at the table with Trump and China, you must be prepared to do “something terrible.”
In this context, political slogans about “full sovereignty,” “taking back control,” and various “exits” (in the style of Brexit), which we also hear in Europe and at home (!), are not merely naïve — they are dangerous. For small states like Slovenia, the idea of isolated sovereignty in a world governed by the rules of raw power is a fatal illusion. The moment we renounce alliances and international integration, we do not become more sovereign. We simply become easier prey. We become the “weaker” ones who cannot afford what the great powers can.
If the world is sliding toward a condition in which the U.S. or Russia can take what they want without argument, then an independent path for a small state leads straight to irrelevance or subordination.
So what remains for us? The answer is not withdrawal, but seeking security through international cooperation and smart alliances.
The first step is undoubtedly a stronger, more united EU. Yet in the new geopolitical squeeze between the U.S., China, and Russia, even that may not be enough. We should look to the model outlined by the Canadian Prime Minister in Davos: forming broader, flexible coalitions of medium-sized and small powers.
These would be alliances of countries that still believe in the strength of international order and rules. Countries that understand their only chance of survival lies in uniting and thereby becoming stronger together. This does not apply only to the EU; it includes partnerships with countries such as Canada, Japan, Australia, and other democracies facing the same risk of being squeezed between the interests of great powers.
We must recognize that these options are not ideal. They require significant compromise and adjustment of interests within alliances. We may not like all decisions coming from Brussels or the strategic shifts of our allies.
But the alternative is far worse. This is no longer merely a question of economic effects or GDP. In a world where a “Russian red line” or a Trump tweet becomes law, it is about the very physical and political existence of sovereign — especially smaller — states as we know them today.
In the new international (dis)order, Slovenia cannot be an “island.” Our sovereignty does not stem from standing alone, but from being part of something larger — something strong enough to say “no” to those prepared to do something terrible.
Will we also be (co)deciding about this on March 22? The answer, of course, is YES.
The column was originally published in the newspaper Večer.